PAGCOR Chair Issues Forecast on 19 Percent Gross Gaming Revenue Drop for 2026

Alejandro Tengco, chair of the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation, delivered a direct assessment of upcoming fiscal pressures facing the nation's gaming sector, and observers note that this assessment centers on a projected contraction in gross gaming revenue that could reach 19 percent during 2026, with rising operational costs tied to developments in the Middle East serving as the primary driver behind the anticipated shortfall.

The forecast matches earlier internal projections that circulated within regulatory circles, and this alignment underscores the consistency of data models that have tracked escalating expenses across integrated resort operations and licensed gaming facilities throughout the Philippines.

Details of the Revenue Projection

Tengco presented the 19 percent figure during a briefing that addressed ongoing industry pressures, and the numbers reflect calculations that factor in higher energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and security-related expenditures connected to regional instability in the Middle East, while the projection remains anchored in current regulatory oversight frameworks that PAGCOR maintains over both land-based and online gaming segments.

Those who have reviewed the underlying data observe that the decline would represent a measurable shift from recent growth patterns, although the precise timing of any slowdown continues to depend on how geopolitical factors evolve through the remainder of 2025 and into the following year.

Context of Industry Pressures

Regulatory oversight has continued to shape licensing, taxation, and compliance standards across Philippine gaming venues, and Tengco emphasized that these same mechanisms remain in place even as external cost pressures mount, with the chair noting that operators must absorb increased expenses without corresponding adjustments to revenue streams in the near term.

Figures from previous quarters showed steady contributions from integrated resorts and electronic gaming operations, yet the new outlook incorporates variables that extend beyond domestic control, including fuel surcharges and imported equipment price increases linked to Middle East shipping routes.

Alignment with Earlier Projections

Earlier modeling exercises conducted by PAGCOR staff produced the same 19 percent decline estimate, and Tengco confirmed that the updated assessment does not deviate from those baselines despite intervening changes in global markets, while the chair highlighted that regulatory reporting requirements continue to provide transparent tracking of both revenue and cost metrics.

Analysts who follow Southeast Asian gaming markets point out that similar cost pressures have surfaced in neighboring jurisdictions, although the Philippine-specific forecast remains distinct because of the scale of integrated resort investments and the proportion of revenue derived from international visitors.

Regulatory Oversight and Future Monitoring

PAGCOR maintains continuous monitoring protocols that require operators to submit monthly and quarterly data on gross gaming revenue, and Tengco indicated that these reports will serve as the primary tool for measuring whether actual results track the 19 percent projection through 2026, with any deviations prompting adjustments to licensing conditions or compliance reviews.

The regulatory body has already implemented cost-containment guidelines for certain operational categories, and these measures aim to mitigate the impact of external price shocks without altering the core taxation structure that funds public programs.

Conclusion

The warning delivered by PAGCOR leadership establishes a clear benchmark against which the Philippine gaming sector will be measured in the coming fiscal cycle, and the 19 percent revenue decline projection tied to Middle East conflict costs provides stakeholders with a concrete reference point for planning and resource allocation through 2026, while ongoing regulatory oversight ensures that data collection and compliance reporting remain central to how the industry responds to these documented pressures.